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A forecast of Commercial Real Estate Development and Investment Volumes in the Czech Republic
Nguyen, Thanh Tu ; Jandík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Streblov, Pavel (referee)
This thesis attempts to forecast investment volumes of the commercial real estate market in the Czech Republic in the medium-term from 2017 to 2020, using both qualitative methods and econometric models. Fundamental analysis and chart analysis are employed while judgemental forecasts by market experts are collected. In order to find evidence of historical and upcoming commercial asset price bubbles, a state-of-the-art peak-tagging technique and chart analysis for the graph of commercial real estate capital value index are used before integrating with market specialists' opinions. Neither CRE bubble nor signal for future major downturn has been found since 2000 despite the occurance of minor overpricing periods. ARIMA and several VAR models with endogenous and exogenous variables are run to find the best quantitative forecasts. Final forecasted investment volume for the upcoming years is found by integrating experts' opinion and results from the chosen model. JEL Classification R33 Keywords commercial real estate, investment, investment volumes, prime yields, office properties, shopping centres, industrial properties, Czech Republic Author's e-mail 88176426@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail tomas.jandik@reicofunds.cz
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Manažerská a finanční metodika týkající se rezidenčního a komerčního trhu s nemovitostmi
Peterková, Karolína
This thesis focuses on creating management and financial methodology for residential and commercial real estate businesses. It begins with a literature review and legal framework overview, exploring perspectives on potential real estate bubbles. The analytical section evaluates the current market situation factors influencing property prices and supply through quantitative and qualitative research among residents and market players. Analytical, comparative, and research methods will be employed to formulate steps for a methodology tailored to businesses in the industry.
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Stanovení hodnoty vybrané nemovitosti
Tomičová, Marie
This diploma thesis analyses the real property market of the micro region Boskovicko and deals with the valuation of selected real property. The theoretical part contains the definition of basic economic context and the specifics of the real property market that represents the fundamental basis of the current approach to real property markets. The review of valuation methods follows. The practical part draws on theory and deals with the real property market analysis with regard to the specifics of the area. It does include valuation of real property using methods, which were selected as most suitable for a particular purpose. Finally, it summarizes the objectives mentioned in the introduction.
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Simulation of pension reform impact on Czech real estate market
Součková, Soňa ; Jandík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Hedbávný, Petr (referee)
Diplomová práce - Soňa Součková: Simulation of pension reform impact on real estate market Abstract The objective of this thesis is to estimate the impact of pension reform on commercial property market in the Czech Republic during the period of 2013 -2017. Our hypothesis is that a potential pension reform would have a positive significant impact on property investment volumes via institutions constituting the second pillar. In the first step, we provide analysis of pension reforms recently applied in Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Given analysis of selected countries and specifics of the proposed Czech pension reform, we estimate that the institutions in the second pillar may face additional yearly cash inflows beginning on EUR 1.23 billion in 2013 and further increasing to EUR 2.59 billion in 2017. Furthermore, we estimate that a likely share allocation by second pillar institutions into real estate would lie in the region of 0 - 14% depending on the discrete decision of the regulators. Using a conservative leverage of 40% for bank financing, we estimate that the expected investment volumes allocated by second pillar institutions into real estate would be EUR 61 - 287 million in year 2013. Given the average investment volumes of EUR 1334 million p.a. allocated into commercial...
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Analysis of the Investment Environment of Chinese Commercial Properties in Czech Republic
Wang, Yining ; Vacek, Pavel (advisor) ; Svoboda, Karel (referee) ; Radošević, Slavo (referee)
Many countries would like to use foreign direct investment to increase the growth of GDP and promote stable development. The Czech Republic is one of the countries having the largest FDI within Central and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Chinese investments have increased significantly and already became an important feature of the China-Europe relationships during recent years. The closer cooperation between China and Europe could encourage FDI. Within the kinds of FDI, the real estate industries experienced a rapid increase in many developed and emerging regions. Therefore, the aim of this study is aiming to analyse the investment environment of Chinese commercial properties in the Czech Republic. Two basic research designs will be employed for this research. The first design is focusing on collected recent available data to present the investment climate of the Czech Republic. In this part, we also make comparisons of the Czech Republic with serval economies. We found that the relatively low cost of labour, low inflation rate, easier to set-up a business (in terms of both times consuming and cash consuming) make the Czech Republic becomes more attractive. And this is consistent with the empirical analysis. Secondly, the questionnaire method was used for the study and we get back 108 questionnaires....
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A forecast of Commercial Real Estate Development and Investment Volumes in the Czech Republic
Nguyen, Thanh Tu ; Jandík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Streblov, Pavel (referee)
This thesis attempts to forecast investment volumes of the commercial real estate market in the Czech Republic in the medium-term from 2017 to 2020, using both qualitative methods and econometric models. Fundamental analysis and chart analysis are employed while judgemental forecasts by market experts are collected. In order to find evidence of historical and upcoming commercial asset price bubbles, a state-of-the-art peak-tagging technique and chart analysis for the graph of commercial real estate capital value index are used before integrating with market specialists' opinions. Neither CRE bubble nor signal for future major downturn has been found since 2000 despite the occurance of minor overpricing periods. ARIMA and several VAR models with endogenous and exogenous variables are run to find the best quantitative forecasts. Final forecasted investment volume for the upcoming years is found by integrating experts' opinion and results from the chosen model. JEL Classification R33 Keywords commercial real estate, investment, investment volumes, prime yields, office properties, shopping centres, industrial properties, Czech Republic Author's e-mail 88176426@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail tomas.jandik@reicofunds.cz
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The Commercial Real Estate Analysis for CEECs region
Pavlas, Michal ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Kvaček, Jan (referee)
In this thesis we examine macroeconomic factors that influenced the office real estate market in CEE countries between years 2000 and 2012. First, we describe commercial real estate indicators. Next, we create several models for four cities - Prague, Budapest, Moscow and Istanbul. We make also panel data regression for all four cities. We conclude some key determinants that influence the prime yields of office buildings in each city and finally we compare and contrast the results across all cities. Our results suggest that prime yields are most influenced by vacancy rate, gross take-up, total office stock and unemployment rate.
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Determinants of Commercial Real Property Prices in the CR during the Financial Crisis
März, Jan ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Todica, Doina (referee)
This thesis examines macroeconomic factors which influenced the Czech commercial real estate market between the years 2007 to 2010, dividing it in three basic segments - loading, office and retail. First we focus on describing the character of the market, how it differs from other areas of economic activities and what are these differences caused by. Next we create several models for particular real estate market quantities and from the results we conclude some fundamental facts about the functioning of the market. We interpret the role of the real estate yield as an instrument of the financial market which moderates the real estate market's reactions to changes in the economic environment.
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